Maths in Poker: An Exact Science?

With the boom of online training aids, such as forums, poker videos and dedicated training sites there is a lot greater emphasis on the maths side of the game than several years ago. Clearly poker involves a lot of maths, but there is a danger in that people often believe maths is an exact science, and while it usually is sometimes it is based on assumptions and if these assumptions are not reasonable then the theories based on them can be inaccurate. This applies more to poker than other fields of application as poker also has a psychological side to it. For the record, I come from a heavy maths background including a maths degree, so this is not a case of me bashing something because I don't like or understand it.

Let's take a simple scenario, I am not going to calculate any of the maths as that is not the point of the blog, you can find examples easily....Google is your friend!

OK so in this example we have 66 and open and get 3 bet shoved on by a 15bb stack. We need to decide whether to call, and for simplicity we are nowhere near the bubble and are only interested in calculating our cEV. To make this calculation we work out our opponents 3 bet shoving range and from that can calculate our equity. The result of this calculation will give us an exact figure and if its positive then we call, but if it's negative we fold. Maths has helped make exactly the correct decision, or has it? Well in making this calculation we had to make one assumption, what was that?

The assumption was working out the 3 bet shoving range of the villain. The accuracy of our resulting calculation is therefore based solely on the accuracy of our assumption of the range. What this means is closer the resulting calculation is to zero the more accurate our assumption needs to be otherwise we may make the incorrect decision. This highlights the dangers of blindly using maths and assuming the answer is always correct!

That leads me on nicely to the concept I really want to talk about, ICM. ICM stands for Independent Chip Model. This model is used to calculate your current equity (in terms of cash) based on your current stack (in tournament chips) taking into consideration all the other player's stacks and the payout structure etc. Again I am not going to go into detail, there is plenty written on the web about ICM in a much better way than I could explain. Feel free to Google and have a read before resuming the blog if you so wish.

ICM essentially assumes that all players have equal ability and that each players chances of winning is directly related to their current chip stack. This also means that ICM assumes that you have the same ability regardless of your stack size. So we have identified two assumptions required by ICM, so in order to determine how reliable the calculations are we need to establish how realistic the assumptions are.

The first assumption is that all players are of the same ability, how reasonable is that assumption? Well consider every single table you have ever played on, and then think how many times you have felt that all players on that table were of the same ability. Unless you are deep in a super strong event then it is extremely unlikely that everyone is at the same skill level.

The second assumption is one that is often missed by a lot of players who swear by ICM. It actually has equal importance to the first assumption. This assumption is that our own ability is a constant regardless of our stack size, and the same principle should hold for our opponents. Well ask yourself the question, do you feel you play equally as well with a 10bb stack as a 100bb stack? What about a 25bb or 40bb stack? The fact is most players don't play as well around 25bb as they do for other stack sizes, 25bb is a very awkward stack to play correctly so this also likely represents our opponents skill set as well. What this means is that our chances of winning with a 26bb stack are not twice that of a 13bb stack. It also may mean that having a 50bb stack is more than twice as good as a 25bb stack. All of this is further clouded by the other effective stacks of course, doubling to 50bb when everyone else only has 25bb isn't as good as we are still playing 25bb poker. Clearly this second assumption is also on shaky ground and cannot be relied on.

To further highlight the weaknesses in these assumptions I will give two quick examples in which ICM states our tournament equity is the same. Take a look and see if you think it actually is.

Example 1:

Seat 1: Hero has 25bb

Seat 2: Nigel the Nit has 100bb

Seat 3: Larry the Good LAG has 10bb

Seat 4: Player 4 has 30bb

Seat 5: Player 5 has 22bb

Seat 6: Player 6 has 17bb

Example 2:

Seat 1: Hero has 25bb

Seat 2: Larry the Good LAG has 100bb

Seat 3: Nigel the Nit has 10bb

Seat 4: Player 4 has 30bb

Seat 5: Player 5 has 22bb

Seat 6: Player 6 has 17bb

The only difference in the examples is in seats 2 and 3, it is a subtle difference that makes a big difference to our chances in the tournament. Being out of position to a good LAG player is horrible when you have a 25bb stack and clearly our chances of winning in example 2 are far less than in example 1 as Larry will make our life very difficult whereas in example 1 our life is easier against the big stack because they are a tight player. Despite this, iIf we calculated our ICM in these two examples they would be exactly the same. Hopefully this shows how flawed the assumptions in ICM are if taking the results to be an exact science

There are also other failings with ICM, it treats each hand in isolation and it doesn’t account for the structure, ironically in a turbo ICM is going to be more accurate as the luck element is increased. Nor does it look at the average stack, again if the average stack is lower than ICM will actually be more accurate due to the higher luck factor. ICM doesn't account for players moods which may affect their ability. Lastly ICM fails to account for future games.

ICM generally means you should fold a massive range to opponents shoves on bubbles, what this means is your opponents can shove any two profitably purely because you can hardly ever call according to ICM. However they can only do this if they know you will fold most of the time, all of a sudden if they know you will call lighter, then they are also putting themselves at risk which means that if you call them lighter in one or two tournaments then they should start shoving a bit tighter in future games. This is especially true in small player pool SNGs / MTTs where you play the same players a lot and have a lot of history on the bubble against ICM players. If they adjust correctly to your lighter calls then you should find yourself getting a few more walks, this can be worth making a slightly marginal call and giving up some small equity in earlier SNGs in order to realise extra equity in future ones.

Don't worry about making precise overly complex calculations based on unrealistic assumptions

So bearing all this in mind is it worth bothering with ICM at all? Well despite all I have said I believe it is. Despite its flaws, ICM is the most accurate mathematical model currently available for poker tournaments. It gives a good approximation and can help players achieve a better understanding of calling ranges when near the money. It is clearly better than just using chip EV.

That said I would never actually go to the trouble of working an ICM calculation out myself, as some players do when looking back at a hand and deciding whether to they made the correct decision on a marginal call. If the decision isn't obvious without calculating it then the calculation itself is likely to be marginal enough that given the assumptions made the results themselves won't be reliable. Instead I will look at the hand and the context to decide whether it is worth the risk. For example if I have 25bb and have a good loose player with a big stack who has position on me than I am usually keen to get away from a 25bb stack so I am more likely to make a marginal call etc. Also in turbos or if the stacks are shallower I am more likely to make a marginal call. In good structured events I am more risk averse when I feel I have an edge over the field and have a playable stack.

It is more the principle behind ICM that is important than the actual calculations in my opinion. You need to be aware that you usually should be calling with a smaller range than cEV would suggest when near the bubble due to the loss of equity when losing the hand being more than the gain in equity when winning the hand. Providing you bear this in mind when making decisions you shouldn't need to do heavy ICM calculations unless you play in super tough games. People who calculate ICM and treat it as an exact science may be making the incorrect decisions on occasions due to incorrect assumptions.

The same is true whenever doing any mathematical calculation, make sure you are aware of the assumptions and put the results into context based on how realistic the assumptions are, otherwise you may draw the wrong conclusion from those calculations. Sometimes you don't even need to calculate precise results if you understand the principles behind a theory. Hopefully that is a relief to all you non maths people!

Success!

Well I suppose it's been a while since I have written a completely happy blog post. Well lots of good things have happened in the last couple of weeks so I thought it was only right that after hearing a lot of my moans that I share various bits of good news!

New Pro Alert!

Undoubtedly the best recent news was announced at the start of PKR live. In case you missed it (where have you been?) PKR have announced a new pro, who is none other than Eleanor 'Elz442' Gudger. I found out a few days before the announcement and of course I was really pleased for Elz and we had a celebratory drink (or two!). Since the announcement several people have asked me if I am jealous or otherwise tried to belittle me due to the fact that my partner is now a sponsored pro whereas I am not. I found these remarks laughable, I am not really the jealous type but even if I was I can't think of anyone who deserves to be a PKR Pro more then Elz, that includes myself. If PKR has asked me to chose whether I or Elz should be their next pro then I would have said Elz without a moment's hesitation. Congratulations and the very best of luck Eleanor!

Elz442 - The latest addition to the PKR Pro Team!

 

Foxes Achieve Promotion

While I was on holiday in Malta, Leicester City mathematically confirmed promotion back to the English Premier League after a 10 year absence. It's been fully deserved with a hungry young squad playing consistently well this year, hopefully we will continue to do so for the next 6 games and wrap up the Championship title (although as I write this we are losing 2-0 to Brighton!). Hopefully we will make a good fight of life in the EPL and survive our first season and stay there for years to come, although I do enjoy life in the Championship as it is such a competitive and unpredictable league, the EPL is where the top clubs are so naturally I want to see Leicester play the big clubs week in week out. Congratulations to all at Leicester, including the manager, players, other staff, the owner and the loyal fans, looking forward to next season already!

Next seasons fixtures are released on 18th June, looking forward to it already!

PKR Live

The last weekend in March saw another instalment of PKR Live at Aspers in Stratford. This time it was a $500 buyin mix max event, which meant it was 9 handed on day 1, 6 handed on day 2 and the last 16 players would play HU on day 3 until there was a victor. Starting stack was 20,000 chips with 40 minute levels. I was looking forward to this event as I felt my shorthanded and HU play would give me an edge against the general field if I could get deep.

Day 1 started well enough, I didn't recognise anyone on my starting table (one guy was familiar but I couldn't put a name to his face). I managed to win a number of small / medium pots early on and I increased my stack to 28k. We reached the 3rd level when an opponent (with about 27k) raised from mid position to 350 (at 75/150) and the cut-off (about 19k) called. I had 46ss in the SB and called, everyone else had folded. The flop fanned out Js5d3d to give me the open ended straight draw with a backdoor flush draw. I checked, the original raiser bet 450 and the cut-off called, and I followed suit, the turn was the Ks giving me the flush draw. I checked again and the original raiser bet 850 and again was met with two calls. The river was the 8s meaning I had hit my flush, at this point I fell the cut-off was unlikely to call another bet nor would he bluff if he had a busted diamond draw.  I also couldn't be sure that the original raiser would fire again, I think he would check most of his range except for sets and maybe KJ given that there were two players calling him down. As such I decide to lead out for 2,100 as I felt this would get called most of the time as it would look like a busted flush draw, indeed the original raiser called and the cut-off folded and I scooped the pot. Although I won the hand I think I made a mistake as I should have bet 3,000 to 3,500 as this wouldn't have changed the chance of me being called much and so I lost around 1k of value. This highlights an important lesson to review all your hands and not just the ones you lose as often you can win a hand but still have made a mistake somewhere.

I stayed at that table for a while and steadily chipped up to 45k but sadly the table broke and this left me at a much tougher table with a few PKR players who I knew including LockeLamora, zOMGhangover and Marlinmann. I ended the day with 40,200 which was a bit of a disappointment given my start but it left me with 25bb to start day 2 and given I hadn't had any big starting hands after the first 3 levels (nothing better than AJo and 88) I couldn't complain too much. After all I had never made a day 2 of a PKR Live before.

Off to a great start

You can view more PKR Live Mixed Max photos on Facebook

Day was 6 handed and there were 73 players left with 24 paid, my table was relatively passive for 6 max and I got a number of walks which suited me as I was really card dead but I kept chipping away but still in need of a big pot to get above average. PKR Pro Scott Shelley moved to my table and I soon found a spot to 3 bet jam over his button open to which he folded. I lost a couple of smaller pots after this while trying to steal but soon after I got involved in my first all-in of the tournament, I 3 bet shoved AJo over Scott's open and this time he called with KJ, I flopped the Ace to look safe but the turn brought a King which left me needed to fade another King on the turn, which I managed to do to double up. I tried to keep active but was really struggling due to getting a large amount of junk. I got a table move with about 31 players left and expected the pace to slow down however the bust-outs kept on coming and we soon got into the money where I had a healthy but not great stack. Eleanor moved to my table and after a while I 3 bet shoved 99 over her open, she called with KJ and I somehow won a flip against her to double up. Soon after we had the last bust-out of the day which meant there was 16 of us left so I won a 30k pot on the last hand to bag up 136,00 for the final day, again I was largely pleased with my play throughout given I had been involved in only 2 all in showdowns throughout the tournament and the biggest pair I had seen on day 2 was JJ.

Day 3 saw me play a heads up match against Jake, who I had played with towards the end of day 1. He had played aggressive and had floated out of position with 63o on a 999 flop and hit his 3 on the river to beat 22. This meant I had to be prepared to get it in light if I thought he was going to take the same aggressive lines heads up but I always thought he might be more cautious as he knew I had seen his play and we were quite shallow. As I only had 22.5bb and he had 27.5bb there wasn't much room for play although the blinds were not increasing during each HU round. I actually started well enough, and had a slight chip lead until Jake hit a straight on the river of a QJxx8 board with T9 and he shoved the river which meant I had to fold my top pair and that gave him a 2-1 chip advantage. I shoved a number of hands to try and get back in it but the first genuine hand I found in the match was KQs which lost to Jake's A8o. I was a little disappointed not to make it through but shallow HU matches which are even in ability are always going to be decided by luck. Jake had played well so I had no grudges at him getting through. Whichever of us got through would have to play Danshreddies HU starting with a 2-1 deficit so even if I made it through to the last 8 it would have been very difficult to get past Dan as he is a very good player who eventually finished 2nd and was unlucky not to win the whole thing. I finished equal ninth for $1,602 which I was happy enough with.

I jumped into the £35 triple shootout, I love shootout tournaments and I made it to the final round and ITM in fairly straight forward fashion. The standard was terrible as most players didn't understand correct shootout play and I was stealing at every opportunity. The blinds were going up fast and with 7 left on the final table I shoved AQ with 12bb stack from the button. The small blind asks the dealer for a count and eventually called with his 12bb stack and tabled AK, his hand held and I was very annoyed at his slow roll. I was left with exactly 1 ante but as is the way of tournament poker I somehow spun that up to be chip-leader with 4 left (due to a lot of luck and getting a lot of incorrect folds from my opponents). 4 handed I lost 77 to 77 when my opponent hit a 4 flush to leave me back down to 3bb which I promptly shoved with 24o in the SB, the BB called with A5o but I hit a 2 to double up. Soon after we were all even in stacks and agreed to do a 4 way chop. I agreed to do a chop as the stacks were shallow, the blinds fast and my image by this point meant I was going to struggle to keep stealing blinds so my edge was small. I wanted to keep it friendly and everyone got £415 which would cover a chunk of their expenses for the weekend.

I went and railed Dan who was HU with Jeff Kimber for the title, which turned out to be a marathon match but sadly Dan lost a couple of flips but did the PKR fans proud. Well played to Jeff also who kept his cool and played a very good game despite most the rail cheering for Dan. I think the PKR Mixed Max was a good format that needed a couple of tweaks to stop the HU games being a lottery early on and then marathons in the later rounds. Staring the blinds a bit lower at the begining of each round but having them go up every 30 minutes would have been ideal IMO. The next PKR Live is in Cannes sometime in October, I don't know if I will make this due to work commitments in early October but I will be there if I can.

This weekend I will be playing at the local Grosvenor Casino in Leicester, where there is a 25/25 event which has a £220 buyin and £25k GTD prize-pool. Hopefully I can keep up the recent form and get a good cash on home soil :)

P.S. Leicester lost 4-1, but at least they confirmed promotion before getting slaughtered!

Come On You Foxes!

Well I am trying to keep up my promise of writing more than I have of late, although there isn't much I can tell you of interest, it still feels like I am only playing with 2 cards against the 7 of my opponents! 

I went to the local casino in Leicester on Friday, mainly for a few beers and a bit of fun more than anything. I played the £25 tournament and had a yo-yo stack throughout before finishing in 12th place with 8 paid (although they did a deal to pay 10 places in the end!). I played well and was picking up chips but every time I got into a big crucial pot I lost and found myself short again.

Anyway after I bust I went to play some £1/£1 cash as the standard is normally bad although it is very high variance due to the players there. I sat down with 120bb and didn't get involved in any big pots for nearly 2 hours. I did however share the same table as Anthony Knockeart, who is a French footballer currently playing for Leicester City. Last season he scored an injury time winner for us against Nottingham Forest to get us into the play-offs at the very last second. However in the play-offs he missed a last minute penalty that resulted in us missing out on the play-off final. He is very highly thought of at Leicester and things are going a lot better this year for The Foxes!

Knockeart celebrating after scoring late winner versus Forest!

When I first sat down I thought it was him but was unsure as I expected him to be in France as Leicester didn't have a match last weekend and I know he often goes home to see his family. It wasn't too long though before he started talking to his friend in French who called him Anthony and confirmed who he was. We didn't really talk much (I don't like to bother celebrities when they are not in their work environment) although he did ask me what time the Arsenal v Everton game was at as he was going to watch it (this was about 2am when he asked, the game kicked off at 12:45 the next day).

The table was a typical live casino table where there would often be several limpers in a pot preflop, and occasionally one of the two French players would open to 17x or even more!  So 2 hours in and I had a tight image mainly as there was little value in trying to bluff anyone as they rarely folded, in fact I was yet to win a pot. I pick up A6o on the cut-off and with 4 or 5 limpers in front I chuck a £1 chip in, the button and blinds all call. The flop is K64r and it checks to me so I bet and the button raises, it folds back to me and I decide to call as I have seen the button get overly aggro and bluffy. The turn bring a T and I check, he bets fairly big (about 75% of the pot) and I call. The river is a nasty looking Q so I again check. He fires a big bet and I decide to call as I have seen him bet big as a bluff and smaller when he has a hand. I win the pot and it remained the only big pot I got involved in until a couple of hands before I was going to leave (about 5am) when I get A4s in MP, there are a couple of callers so I decide to call (it is always a mistake to raise these type of hands in these games IMO). The flop is a good looking AT4, it checks to me, I bet and get one caller. The turn brings the Ks so I now have the nut flush draw as well, my opponent check calls my bet and the river brings another Ace. He checks and I bet fairly big (thinking he likely has the other Ace and will pay me off). He calls and I table A4 for a full house, he waits for about  5 to 10 seconds then turns his hand over to also show A4. Needless to say I wasn't entirely happy about it but I ended the session with profit even after deducting the tournament buyin. This was despite not having any premium hands (my best pair was 33 in over 4 hours and I had AQo once) on a loose calling station table with a chunky rake.

I have a few live tournaments lined up in the next month or so, this weekend I am heading off to Sheffield to play a side event at the Genting Poker Series (sadly work commitments mean I can't get the Friday off to play the main GPS event). On the last weekend in March I will be playing the PKR Live Mix Max at Aspers in London, I am hoping to do better than I have done at previous PKR Lives but given my recent form I am not banking on it. On the weekend 11th - 13th April there is a Grosvenor 25/25 event at Leicester which I intend to play (given it is in my hometown it would be rude not too!). Then on 13th - 15th June there is a PKR meetup in Southend on Sea, which is always a lot of fun. If you haven't been to a PKR meet before and are considering it then I highly recommend you do. After that I may head off to Vegas, although this isn't certain yet. With any luck I will be able to add to my live record in one or more of these events, but more important is that I can play well!

Crazy Golf and drinking are on the agenda again for Southend on Sea!

Lastly it looks like Leicester City are destined for a return to the Premier League next season, they have a good lead over 3rd place, hopefully March and April will be a good time for foxes all round! Maybe the next time I write a blog it will be about a good live score and The Foxes having confirmed promotion :) 

Long Overdue Vegas Report (Of Sorts!)

Well I am back (sort of!). It has been 10 months since my last blog post, and while I always knew the frequency of my blogs would reduce over time I didn't think I would go this long in-between entries. There are a couple of main reasons for this; first of all, I don't want to write posts if I think they are either going to be boring or repetitive. The past year or more has been terrible for me poker wise, certainly 2013 was the worst poker year I have had in several years, yes I had a few decent results but generally poor luck and some poor play cost me a lot in 2013. However the poor results on the felt have been more than compensated by events in my personal life, where Eleanor moved to Leicester to live with me, and more recently we have bought a house together. Clearly all of these events always had an impact on the amount of poker I have been playing and also my lack of time to commit to write any blogs.

I visited Vegas last summer and on my return I had drafted out some details for a trip report but I never got around to completing it. However I did have some details on the first few tournaments I played, so I have decided to post the notes I did make, although they aren't as comprehensive as I would like they may still make some interesting reading for some of you, while helping me get back into blogging!

For my trip to Vegas in 2013, I had no plans to play any World Series events due to an online downswing and life commitment I didn’t feel like stumping up $1k+ for a high variance event. The Venetian Deep Stack Extravaganza (DSE) events have lower buy-ins and offer pretty good structures while still having a decent prize-pool.

The first event I played was a $400 DSE event, starting with 12,000 chips and 40 minute blinds, this was a 2 day event, I started off playing tight while I got settled and analysed the players. I got some value with a few hands and picked good spots to bluff and won a couple of big pots with big hands to put me up to 120,000 chips and in a commanding position. After that everything went wrong, I lost an 80k pot with AQs in the SB against the big blind’s AK shortly followed by losing a 90k flip with JJ v AQ, I managed to chip up a little with some squeeze shoves to get back to about 35bb if I recall correctly. 2 hands before the end of day 1 a loose big stack opens and I am in the SB with JJ, I 3 bet to induce a shove from him, he does shove and I snap but he has AK and I lose the race to bust out after 10 hours of play without cashing. I was happy with my play though and it gave me confidence for the rest of the holiday.

The next day was a $600 DSE event, this time with 15,000 chips. My starting table was soft and I was getting maximum value from marginal hands and won a big pot when a short stack shove then an older guy made a huge isolation shove, I looked down at QQ and re-shoved and held against rags and the old guy’s AJ. I amassed a stack of 70,000 after a few levels of play which was still over 100bb and I was confident of another deep run. Our table then broke and with the blinds at 400/800/a50 I get dealt AK, which is a very problematic hand for me in recent months, I have a very poor record winning with it or beating it. However, this doesn’t mean that I shy away from it when I believe it is in good shape, in this hand I get 40k in the middle against a young player and brick against his JJ. A short while later I run 99 into a short stacks TT and lose, finding myself back to the starting stack, which is now just 15bb.

AK has caused me a lot of pain in 2013!

I find TT UTG and shove, UTG + 1 3 bets, UTG + 3 4 bet shoves and the button then 5 bet shoves, UTG + 1 tanks and eventually folds and shows KK (as action had been completed). By this time I know my TT is crushed but if I can win the hand I would be well chipped up, the cards go on their backs and I am up against QQ and AA, somehow I hit my ten and get back to 42k. Pretty sick live hand to see AA, KK, QQ and TT all dealt, made even more so when I spiked my set, I was grateful for the reprieve and went to work building my stack up to 100k without showdowns. At this stage this was about 33bb and there were 47 of us left (36 paid). I was stuck between some big stacks who were playing well and I was unable to win any big pots, any steal attempts I tried failed. I decided the best approach was just to play hands for value until the bubble burst  and when we made it into the money I had 18bb. About half an hour later I open shoved A6o on the button and got called by the big blind who had pocket 3s, I lost the flip and was left with just 1,500 chips, at this point the blinds were 2,500/5,000/a500 so I had less than a SB or just 3 antes. Next hand I was all in blind and had AQ which won versus 99 and I then pushed K2h and beat AJ and before I knew it I had 100k again. We got to the last hand of the night and I had 80k ish at 3,000/6,000/a500, but this would only be 10bb going into tomorrow. UTG + 1 min opened to 12k and the cut-off and button called, they all had medium size stacks and I looked down at T9d and decided it was a great spot to squeeze shove as there was a good chance the players wouldn’t want a big dent to their stacks on the last hand. The initial raiser folded but the cut-off called, the button folded and the cut-off flipped JQh. I flopped the 9 and won the hand, the initial raiser moaned he had folded a good ace and would have won the hand (there was an ace on the flop) and the QJh guy complained about his bad luck, but I think his call was a very poor one with his stack size and one player left to act. The result was I had 194,000 chips to go into day 2 with 23 players left and $42k for the winner.

My table for day 2 began remarkably soft considering how deep we were in the tourney, the big stack was on my right but he soon got moved to another table and I chipped up to 250k without showing my cards. I then look down at AKc and min raise UTG to 16k (my standard) it folds to the SB who shoves 220k in, the BB folds and I snap call. He flips over KQhh. The flop comes A73 with one heart so I just need to fade runner runners, the turn brings the 9h and the river is the Jh and he scoops the half a million pot and takes the chip lead and I am left with just 4bb and feeling pretty crushed. I spin the 4bb up to 15bb then lose TT v AQ and bust in 17^th for just short of $2k.

I had definitely had a roller coaster ride during the tournament and could easily have busted earlier than I did on a few occasions, but also lost a couple of big pots with AK. If I had won that half million pot that I am pretty sure I would have made the final table with a good chip stack and with $42,000 for the winner who knows what might have happened, I also could have busted before we reached the money and won exactly zero!. That is the way of MTTs, they are usually a case of fine lines and ifs and maybes.

I avoid roller-coasters at theme parks but can't avoid them at the poker tables!

I was extremely pleased with my play and was happy to bag my first cash of the trip and was eager to hit the felt again and after hour or so for some food I jumped into a $250 bounty event, which was a much faster 1 day event with $25 bounties, I busted before the money but managed to recover some of my buyin after busting a few players.

The next day I played a $500 event which had the same structure as the $600, my starting table was quite tight and I was chipping up slowly up to about 21.5k without any big pots of note. I did witness a bizzare hand where an old guy and a young kid where HU with a 3k pot by the river, the kid bet 7,500 on the river and the old guy shoved for 100 more and the kid snap folded leaving himself 200 chips! Following that I got dealt JJ and opened and got 3 bet by a middle aged guy in the blinds who had seemed fairly tight, I didn’t fancy 4 betting here as I felt he wasn’t 3 betting that wide and was unlikely to fold, but I had the odds to setmine so I called. The flop came down TT2 and the guy bet out pretty big and it felt like he had a bigger pair than mine, so I folded and he showed QQ. I don’t understand why tight players show their hands, surely if you are playing tight you need to get paid so showing that you are not bluffing is counterproductive as people will believe you. Showing would only make sense if you were planning to bluff later on. I then win with Aces v Queens to give me some room to play, I then 3 bet a guy with JJ, I had been raising him quite a lot and I guess he decided he had had enough of me raising him and he 4 bet shoved A2o, I called and held and went up to 60k and then struggled when a couple of aggro players moved to the table and went to the dinner break with 50k. After some food I pick up QQ and get one caller from the BB, the flop is J92 and he bets I raise and he calls, the turn brings a 4 and he shoves, I call to find out he has 94 and he holds which left me with 30k (~20bb). I manage to get a cold 4 bet shove through with T8s, with the original raiser claiming to have folded AK. We get down to about 65 left with 54 paid and I have just over 11bb and find 65h on the cutoff which I open shove into Aces, the flop is 4h5s7h giving me a lot of outs but I brick and bust after 11 hours with no return.

The rest of the trip wasn't too fruitful for me, I managed 10th in a $240 6 max at Caeser's for about $700 (shoving A7 and losing to JTo) but after that I didn't make any impression on any tournaments, but of course enjoyed myself in Vegas!

Well I hope that wasn't too painful to digest, I spent a long time debating whether to post this or not before finally deciding to. Until next time, I hope you all have good fortune on and off the felt!