Running Bad or Playing Bad?

The astute readers amongst you may have noticed that I have not posted a review of May, well frankly there wasn’t much to report on and I don’t intend to post a monthly review as I think that would make for a boring blog. Suffice to say I ran pretty dry, not getting many good hands, hardly flopping a set and when I had a hand I was getting little action, when I tried to make a move I was frequently getting played back at. Destacker, Lugfest, LockeLamora and myself played in a WSOP Team Championship event at Ladbrokes, which consisted of the 4 of us playing 12 MTTs with points based on finishing positions. After the 12 games we scored 810 points which finished 1 point off 2nd place, which would have been worth a 3,500 euro WSOP Package for us all, this was very disappointing for all 4 of us as we were probably the best team in the championship but we all got numerous instances of bad luck in different tournaments that we couldn't overcome, we could easily have finished 1st and scored a main event package, but it wasn't meant to be. May ended bad but in the first week in June I managed a good score on PokerStars, I got to the final 4 of 1222 runners in a $33 buyin MTT, I ran fairly well to get there, winning most of the races I got involved in. When we got 4 handed we agreed to do a deal where we all got $4k each and 1st would get the extra $900. Considering I was 3rd in chips and a way behind the leader, 4th place was $2.5k and 1st was $6.3k I was happy to make this deal, I was surprised the chip leader agreed to it as he had a nice chiplead, but of course that could all have changed on a flip.

That MTT aside I have ran pretty poorly in recent weeks, but this isn’t going to be a whinge blog, I have spoken before about how running bad can lead to playing bad without the player even noticing, when running bad marginal decisions are much harder and can be affected by factors outside of the current dynamics. A good example of this is when you are in a MTT and have been card for a long time and haven’t won a pot when you get dealt a good hand, say JJ on the button. You have 30bb but before the action gets to you there is an UTG raise and a 3 bet shove from a tight player, now if you were ‘running well’ then this hand is probably an easy fold but if you have been card dead then sometimes you might be tempted to call because it is the best you have seen for sometime, which is clearly something that should never be considered when deciding an action, historic hand distributions should always be irrelevant when making a decision.

I am going to highlight a recent hand I played in Welllbet’s Home Game which on the surface looks like run bad but in fact I played it poorly and I think it is a good hand to learn from. In this hand I am currently 2^nd in chips with 25bb and there are 12 left out of 91 runners, 10 get paid so we are near the direct bubble:

Blinds are now 600 / 1,200

Seat 1: ForFoxSake - 30,485

Seat 3: Seat 3 - 22,472

Seat 6: Seat 6 - 10,975

Seat 7: Seat 7 - 35,854

Seat 8: Seat 8 - 17,516

Seat 9: Seat 9 - 22,877

Moving Button to seat 6

6 x posts ante of 150

Seat 7 posts small blind (600)

Seat 8 posts big blind (1,200)

Dealing [6 h][6 s] to ForFoxSake

Seat 9 folds

ForFoxSake raises to 2,750

Seat 3 and 6 fold

Seat 7 calls 2,750

Seat 8 folds

Pot sizes: 7,600

Dealing Flop [4 c][9 c][K d]

Seat 7 checks

ForFoxSake bets 3,425

Seat 7 calls 3,425

Pot sizes: 14,450

Dealing Turn [J d]

Seat 7 checks

ForFoxSake checks

Pot sizes: 14,450

Dealing River [6 d]

Seat 7 bets 8,400

I make a standard size open and get called by the small blind, I make a c-bet and get called, the turn goes check check. The river gives me a set and the villain leads out, although the river also brought a back door flush draw I don’t think there are many combinations of diamonds he would have here, especially with the top pair on the flop being a diamond, a hand like QTc is possible but I think sets are unlikely here, so the vast majority of the time my set is good here. Due to not running too good in recent times and not hitting many sets I make a knee jerk reaction and shove:

ForFoxSake raises to 24,160 (all-in)

Seat 7 calls 24,160

Pot sizes: 62,770

ForFoxSake shows [6 h][6 s]

Seat 7 shows [A d][9 d]

I get snap called by the nuts, the villain had in fact hit runner runner flush. At the time I was annoyed with my poor luck, the river card is the only card in the deck that will bust me here but shortly after and on review I shouldn’t have busted in the way I did. Sure it is likely I have the best hand, but we are 2^nd in chips v 1^st and when I raise the river here there aren’t many hands that will call that I have beat and there are no hands that beat me that will fold to the raise, as such I think calling is the best option, in other words there are no river cards that should bust me in this spot if I am playing well. I bubbled the MTT from 2^nd and blamed it on bad luck when I could (and should) have realised that calling the river was the best play, I would have been left with around 13bb which would give me a chance to play shove fold poker.

Morale of the story is to check your play in hands and don’t always assume you have been unlucky with the cards and that the hand was out of your control, you might find spots where you had some bad luck but you compounded the misfortune with poor play. It is all too easy to put these kind of hands down as coolers but good players will save chips in some of these spots, weak players will instead go bust and then bemoan their luck without reviewing to see if they made a mistake.

I will be heading to Vegas on 27^th June so I won’t be blogging for a while, although I hope to have a few interesting things to write about when I return, until then good luck at the tables!

Winning the Masters Part 2

Final Table

In my previous entry I briefly described my route to the PKR Masters FT in July 2010, in this entry I will bring the MTT to a conclusion. The final table starts as follows:

Seat 1: NoWayKK - $166,884
Seat 2: xxSOLxx - $500,338
Seat 3: barx1210 - $247,303
Seat 4: BigbackMatty - $316,386
Seat 5: gowser4 - $234,036
Seat 6: hubalex - $70,763
Seat 7: ForFoxSake - $139,130
Seat 8: Dutchpower99 - $265,276
Seat 9: tsuga - $171,658
Seat 10: ShrpFeather - $168,226

The blinds are $5,000/$10,000 so I only have 14bb which isn’t great but if I can get one or two good spots then I can hopefully at least better my previous best finish in the masters, which was a 7th place. 4 hands in UTG opens to 3x with a 9bb stack, I am UTG+1 with 13.5bb and see AJo and fold, UTG range is pretty narrow here I am not in good shape versus their range, added into the fact there are still 8 other random hands to act this is a comfortable fold in this spot, it turns out UTG had AQ and one of the random hands was AK.

The next few hands are rags, I then pick up AQ and shove and get called by AQ and we chop, so my stack is around 10bb, a few hands after this it folds to the SB who min raises, I have 10bb and see KQo so 3 bet shove and the SB folds. I pick up a few small pots and chip up nicely when this hand develops:

Seat 1: NoWayKK - $190,247

Seat 3: barx1210 - $142,903

Seat 4: BigbackMatty - $322,586

Seat 5: gowser4 - $115,636

Seat 7: ForFoxSake - $293,530

Seat 8: Dutchpower99 - $350,276

Seat 9: tsuga - $736,196

Seat 10: ShrpFeather - $128,626

Moving Button to seat 4

NoWayKK posts ante of $1,600

barx1210 posts ante of $1,600

BigbackMatty posts ante of $1,600

gowser4 posts ante of $1,600

ForFoxSake posts ante of $1,600

Dutchpower99 posts ante of $1,600

tsuga posts ante of $1,600

ShrpFeather posts ante of $1,600

gowser4 posts small blind ($8,000)

ForFoxSake posts big blind ($16,000)

Shuffling Deck

Dealing Cards

Dealing [Qh Jh] to ForFoxSake

Dutchpower99 folds

tsuga folds

ShrpFeather folds

NoWayKK folds

barx1210 folds

BigbackMatty folds

gowser4 raises to $114,036 (all-in)

ForFoxSake calls $114,036

gowser4 shows [Qd Kh]

ForFoxSake shows [Qh Jh]

Dealing Flop [3h Qs 5c]

Dealing Turn [Th]

Dealing River [Kc]

gowser4 has Two Pairs: Kings, Queens

gowser4 wins $240,872 with: Two Pairs: Kings, Queens

I was expecting an open shove from the 7bb SB here with a wide range and had already decided to call if he open shoved, but in hindsight given it’s a fair size of my stack and losing drops me to 12bb, I think a fold here is slightly more preferable. In fact I do lose and end up short, so I then have to pick my spots for a while and shove to pick up blinds and keep a stack that has some fold equity.

Playing to Win and Getting Some Luck

We get down to 5 handed and I am now firmly in win or bust mode, when I get ATo in the cutoff:

Seat 1: NoWayKK - $172,094

Seat 7: ForFoxSake - $234,694

Seat 8: Dutchpower99 - $195,831

Seat 9: tsuga - $1,101,099

Seat 10: ShrpFeather - $576,282

Moving Button to seat 8

NoWayKK posts ante of $2,000

ForFoxSake posts ante of $2,000

Dutchpower99 posts ante of $2,000

tsuga posts ante of $2,000

ShrpFeather posts ante of $2,000

tsuga posts small blind ($10,000)

ShrpFeather posts big blind ($20,000)

Dealing [Tc Ad] to ForFoxSake

NoWayKK folds

ForFoxSake raises to $232,694 (all-in)

Dutchpower99 folds

tsuga has requested more time

tsuga is using the time bank

tsuga has 76 seconds remaining in the time bank

tsuga folds

ShrpFeather calls $232,694

ForFoxSake shows [Tc Ad]

ShrpFeather shows [As Kc]

Dealing Flop [Qc 8s 9s]

Dealing Turn [Jc]

Dealing River [8d]

ForFoxSake has Straight, Queen high

ForFoxSake wins $485,388 with: Straight, Queen high

This is one of the few hands I have had at the final table and it is a clear shove IMO, I get unlucky to run into a better hand but then get lucky when I suckout, I don’t think there is any other way to play this though and I get a much needed double up. I promptly lose a big pot check raising a flop as a bluff then barrelling turn and so drop to 12bb again in short time, I shove the next two hands with 77 and T9h and try to put pressure on where I can, while having very few hands to work with. I get lucky again when I shove 10bb with KJ and get called by A7d but I river a straight. Another player gets eliminated and 4 handed is quite cagey for a while, I pick up pots here and there and lose some too so don’t make much headway, then this hand is dealt:

Blinds are now $15,000/$30,000

Seat 1: NoWayKK - $289,854

Seat 7: ForFoxSake - $355,276

Seat 9: tsuga - $989,382

Seat 10: ShrpFeather - $645,488

Moving Button to seat 10

NoWayKK posts ante of $3,000

ForFoxSake posts ante of $3,000

tsuga posts ante of $3,000

ShrpFeather posts ante of $3,000

NoWayKK posts small blind ($15,000)

ForFoxSake posts big blind ($30,000)

Dealing [Ad 5h] to ForFoxSake

tsuga folds

ShrpFeather folds

NoWayKK raises to $90,000

ForFoxSake raises to $352,276 (all-in)

I get A5o in the BB and the SB opens, I only have 12bb and the effective stacks are 9.5bb so I have to decide whether to raise or fold, as I am playing to win I decide to shove and get the bad news....

NoWayKK calls $286,854 (all-in)

NoWayKK shows [Qd Qh]

ForFoxSake shows [Ad 5h]

Dealing Flop [Jh 7d Kd]

Dealing Turn [9s]

Dealing River [Ac]

....only to hit a miracle river card.

This luck allows me to pick up some more small pots (again without cards) and then this hand develops:

Blinds are now $15,000/$30,000

Seat 7: ForFoxSake - $905,130

Seat 9: tsuga - $902,382

Seat 10: ShrpFeather - $472,488

Moving Button to seat 10

ForFoxSake posts ante of $3,000

tsuga posts ante of $3,000

ShrpFeather posts ante of $3,000

ForFoxSake posts small blind ($15,000)

tsuga posts big blind ($30,000)

Dealing [8h 8c] to ForFoxSake

ShrpFeather raises to $469,488 (all-in)

tsuga shakes her head.

ForFoxSake has requested more time

ForFoxSake is using the time bank

ForFoxSake has 98 seconds remaining in the time bank

ForFoxSake calls $469,488

ForFoxSake shows [8h 8c]

ShrpFeather shows [Ah Jh]

Dealing Flop [9h Js Ts]

Dealing Turn [8d]

Dealing River [6h]

ShrpFeather has One Pair: Jacks

ForFoxSake has Three of a Kind: 8s

ForFoxSake wins $977,976 with: Three of a Kind: 8s

Shrp shoves all in, I think I have about 55% equity against his likely shoving range (I don’t want to discuss his shoving range here as I feel that it is unfair to disclose my thoughts on specific opponents in frequent spots in an open blog) even if I lose I am not out and I would rather player Tsgua heads up than Shrp and as I am playing to win I make the call. We flip and although he hits the flop I redraw on the turn and go into HU with a chiplead.

Heads Up

I get the better of the opening exchanges and this is the first major pot of the heads up battle:

Blinds are now $20,000/$40,000

Seat 7: ForFoxSake - $1,468,618

Seat 9: tsuga - $811,382

Moving Button to seat 9

ForFoxSake posts ante of $4,000

tsuga posts ante of $4,000

tsuga posts small blind ($20,000)

ForFoxSake posts big blind ($40,000)

Dealing [9c Qh] to ForFoxSake

tsuga raises to $80,000

ForFoxSake calls $80,000

Dealing Flop [3h 5c Qd]

ForFoxSake checks

tsuga bets $80,000

ForFoxSake raises to $240,000

tsuga raises to $727,382 (all-in)

ForFoxSake has requested more time

ForFoxSake is using the time bank

ForFoxSake has 84 seconds remaining in the time bank

ForFoxSake calls $727,382

Q9o is a decent hand heads up and I call the min raise, I decide to check raise the turn and Tsuga shoves over the top. I break down the likely hands here and decide to discard KK or AA or sets as Tsuga had a tendency to slow play these, this left better Queens that I was losing to, but Tsuga had seen me check raise before so I decided there might be a lot of air here or mid pairs that might be ahead, in the end I feel I am getting the right odds here to make the call:

ForFoxSake shows [9c Qh]

tsuga shows [Kh As]

Dealing Turn [4d]

Dealing River [2s]

tsuga has Straight, 5 high

tsuga wins $1,622,764 with: Straight, 5 high

I get some bad luck and lose to a runner runner straight, the very next hand I get QQ and double through AK. A few hands later and I get dealt a less than premium hand:

Blinds are now $20,000/$40,000

Seat 7: ForFoxSake - $1,270,472

Seat 9: tsuga - $1,009,528

Moving Button to seat 7

ForFoxSake posts ante of $4,000

tsuga posts ante of $4,000

ForFoxSake posts small blind ($20,000)

tsuga posts big blind ($40,000)

Dealing [2c 5h] to ForFoxSake

ForFoxSake raises to $90,000

tsuga calls $90,000

Dealing Flop [7d 4c 9s]

tsuga bets $80,000

ForFoxSake raises to $200,000

I open here with position postflop, my opponent donk leads which immediately rules out strong hands so I decide to rep a hand and raise:

tsuga calls $200,000

Dealing Turn [Qc]

tsuga bets $80,000

ForFoxSake raises to $240,000

I get called and once again Tsuga puts out a donk bet, it is so small that I am almost certain that it is a draw, maybe 56, T8 or JT, with the villain’s style of play it is either a draw or a set here. It felt too weak to fold to the min bet so I continue my line of representing a big hand:

tsuga calls $240,000

Dealing River [3d]

tsuga checks

ForFoxSake bets $320,000

tsuga folds

ForFoxSake shows [2c 5h]

ForFoxSake has High Card: Queen

ForFoxSake wins $1,068,000

I actually disliked the river as it meant one of the draws got there but I fire a small bet feeling that almost everything bar 56 was going to fold although at the time I was quite nervous due to the nature of the situation. Tsuga folds and actually had JTc, which I was surprised played the turn that way. I breathed a sigh of relief when the fold came and now had a commanding lead in the heads up. I soon doubled my opponent with A6o v ATo when they had less than 10bb but the final hand soon came:

Blinds are now $20,000/$40,000

Seat 7: ForFoxSake - $1,428,944

Seat 9: tsuga - $851,056

ForFoxSake posts ante of $4,000

tsuga posts ante of $4,000

ForFoxSake posts small blind ($20,000)

tsuga posts big blind ($40,000)

Dealing [6d 4c] to ForFoxSake

ForFoxSake calls $40,000

tsuga checks

Dealing Flop [6s 4h 7h]

tsuga checks

ForFoxSake bets $80,000

tsuga raises to $807,056 (all-in)

ForFoxSake calls $807,056

ForFoxSake shows [6d 4c]

tsuga shows [7s Jh]

Dealing Turn [Ad]

Dealing River [Kh]

tsuga has One Pair: 7s

ForFoxSake has Two Pairs: 6s, 4s

ForFoxSake wins $1,702,112 with: Two Pairs: 6s, 4s

I limped in, which I rarely do but get lucky to flop two pair versus my opponents top pair, we get it all in and I hold to take victory in PKR’s biggest guaranteed event.

Summary

Undoubtedly I got some luck in this MTT, some of it fairly obvious like winning flips or sucking out, but here is a quick overview of a few statistics:

I was involved in 40 all in hands, this is where either I was all in or I had called an opponent’s all in, of these I won 22 without a showdown, of the 18 that went to showdown I had an average of 57% equity (some of these were against short stacks hence equity is a little low), an average of 70% of my stack was at risk during these 22 all ins, I won 11, split 2 and lost 5 of these so clearly I won more than would be considered normal.

I got dealt 152 hands at the final table, of which I have classified them into premium hands, good hands and the rest, here is the breakdown:

Premiums 1

AA 0

KK 0

QQ 1

JJ 0

AK 0

AQs 0

I only got dealt 1 premium during the final table, and this was QQ and it was actually heads up!

Good Hands 23

TT 0

99 0

88 2

77 2

66 1

55 1

44 0

33 1

22 1

AQo 2

AJs 0

AJo 2

ATs 0

ATo 2

KQ 2

KJ 3

KT 2

QJ 2

QTs 0

TJs 0

So 23 of my starting hands I would consider good, although this obvious depends on the position I was in when getting dealt those hands and other factors, but it gives a brief illustration of the fact that I didn’t have a lot of hands so I as I was playing to win I was forced to play inferior holdings and as such I lucked out more.
Remember also that I lost with AA to 89c and to a runner runner straight when heads up. Overall I got lucky, but it isn’t really different to when you get a stream of good hands on a FT and win lots of pots from in front. You have to play with the cards and spots that arise, it is impossible to win with AA if you never get dealt it! I was happy with my play in most hands and was also overjoyed to have lady luck on my side in a big MTT. I haven’t been close to winning it since, but that doesn’t stop me trying!

Winning the Masters - Part 1

In July 2010 I won the PKR Masters, a $270 buyin MTT with $100,000 guaranteed prizepool. As this is PKR’s headline MTT and it is almost 2 years since I emerged victorious I thought I would write a separate blog entry about my win. This blog will list some key hands I played and my thoughts were applicable. but if you are hoping to read an entry on how to win the Masters then you are in for a big disappointment, as with any MTT you need a fair amount of luck in order to win and there is no sure fire recipe to guarantee a win.

As this is $270 buyin event, you may not be properly rolled to buyin directly, in which case you may decide to try and qualify via satellites. I want to mention briefly that while taking shots at qualifying is all well and good, satellites can be very damaging to your bankroll. The main reason for this is you have to win the satellite you are playing AND cash in the event you qualify for to see any return on your investment, this adds another layer of variance into the game, this is increased the more stages you have to go through before qualifying for the event. As such if you are just rolled say for $20 MTTs then you shouldn’t be buying into $20 satellites, you need to have stricter BRM rules when considering qualifiers. Exactly how tight these rules should be depend on how many stages you have to go through and also how confident you are of your chances of winning a ticket in the satellite. Some players are adept at qualifiers and expect to win a ticket a lot more often than the average, these players can be a bit more relaxed towards satellite BRM, those who struggle to win tickets, need to be a bit more careful otherwise their bankroll can reduce substantially with no cash return.

MrKeema's photoshopping skills in the PKR forum after my win

Early Game

The Masters has a 5,000 starting stack and 20 minute blinds, the first level is 10/20 so there is some room to play early on and you can play tight early or try and be a bit more active and win a number of small pots. I played a tight game early on and managed to win a few small pots in the first hour before this hand developed:

Blinds are now $30/$60

Seat 1: ThaPAbbot - $6,329

Seat 2: Ravenfeeder - $6,859

Seat 3: wesam1971 - $2,629

Seat 4: philguilli - $6,255

Seat 5: giorgit - $4,450

Seat 6: ForFoxSake - $5,424

Seat 7: xoxmanonxox - $5,495

Seat 8: thesaintsback - $4,860

Seat 9: brian27 - $4,110

Seat 10: piisaa114 - $3,589

Moving Button to seat 7

thesaintsback posts small blind ($30)

brian27 posts big blind ($60)

Dealing [8s 8c] to ForFoxSake

piisaa114 folds

ThaPAbbot folds

Ravenfeeder folds

wesam1971 folds

philguilli folds

giorgit folds

ForFoxSake raises to $180

xoxmanonxox folds

thesaintsback folds

brian27 raises to $540

ForFoxSake calls $540

I open from late position and the big blind 3 bets me, he has seemed fairly tight up till now so I put him on a big hand, there is potential for me to win a big hand if I can hit a set v an overpair, or if he has 2 overcards he seems likely to check low flops and I can win without hitting my set. Note here though that my initial raise of 3x has made the size of the 3 bet bigger which makes it a more marginal call with the 8s, if I had opened to 150 then I might have been 3 bet to 450 which makes it a much easier call.

Dealing Flop [Qd 8d Qs]

brian27 has requested more time

brian27 is using the time bank

brian27 has 118 seconds remaining in the time bank

brian27 bets $565

ForFoxSake raises to $1,695

I hit my set, but the pair of queens may hamper my chances of getting paid, but as he leads out I put him on a big hand, the only hand that he has here that I think he folds to a raise is AK, but I don’t think he would c-bet AK that often so I decide to raise

brian27 has requested more time

brian27 is using the time bank

brian27 has 116 seconds remaining in the time bank

brian27 raises to $3,570 (all-in)

ForFoxSake calls $3,570

ForFoxSake shows [8s 8c]

brian27 shows [Ah As]

Dealing Turn [5s]

Dealing River [3c]

brian27 has Two Pairs: Aces, Queens

ForFoxSake has Full House, 8s over Queens

ForFoxSake wins $8,250 with: Full House, 8s over Queens

We get it in as I had expected and I win a nice big pot.

A Nice Donation

After that hand nothing much happened for a while I won and lost small pots while generally playing tight and picking my spots. I hovered between 10bb and 20bb for a while, I 3 bet shoved QQ and got called by pocket 3s and doubled up and a while later I get another double up 3 bet shoving AJ v A4. The following hand then develops:

Blinds are now $2,000/$4,000

Seat 1: RINGOSTAR6 - $40,952

Seat 2: thesaintsback - $13,179

Seat 3: poloxon - $47,121

Seat 5: VKyller - $125,244

Seat 6: mcoupar - $55,787

Seat 7: ForFoxSake - $80,238

Seat 8: xxSOLxx - $66,379

Seat 10: dremelole - $60,598

Moving Button to seat 1

8x ante of $400

thesaintsback posts small blind ($2,000)

poloxon posts big blind ($4,000)

Dealing [Ac 7c] to ForFoxSake

VKyller folds

mcoupar folds

ForFoxSake raises to $10,000

xxSOLxx folds

dremelole folds

RINGOSTAR6 calls $10,000

thesaintsback raises to $12,779 (all-in)

poloxon folds

ForFoxSake calls $12,779

RINGOSTAR6 calls $12,779

Dealing Flop [3c As Ah]

ForFoxSake checks

RINGOSTAR6 checks

Dealing Turn [6d]

ForFoxSake bets $16,000

RINGOSTAR6 has requested more time

RINGOSTAR6 is using the time bank

RINGOSTAR6 has 99 seconds remaining in the time bank

RINGOSTAR6 raises to $27,773 (all-in)

ForFoxSake calls $27,773

RINGOSTAR6 shows [Ks Qs]

thesaintsback shows [4s Ad]

ForFoxSake shows [Ac 7c]

Dealing River [Td]

RINGOSTAR6 has One Pair: Aces

ForFoxSake has Three of a Kind: Aces

ForFoxSake wins $55,546 from side pot #1 with: Three of a Kind: Aces

thesaintsback has Three of a Kind: Aces

ForFoxSake wins $45,537 with: Three of a Kind: Aces

I get a nice gift as the guy bluffs with no fold equity and after a long while of playing shove/fold poker I have some room to manoeuvre. 

Aces Cracked

That room doesn’t last long though as I get aces cracked:

Blinds are now $2,000/$4,000

Button is at seat 10

Seat 1: NoWayKK - $89,267

Seat 2: xxmarkyxx - $135,365

Seat 3: ljfAces - $54,044

Seat 4: SideyBurns - $11,982

Seat 5: Greatfish - $91,426

Seat 7: ForFoxSake - $131,569

Seat 8: marcelluswa - $97,551

Seat 9: doudou972 - $65,799

Seat 10: poloxon - $43,521

Moving Button to seat 1

9x ante of $400

xxmarkyxx posts small blind ($2,000)

ljfAces posts big blind ($4,000)

Dealing [As Ah] to ForFoxSake

SideyBurns folds

Greatfish folds

ForFoxSake raises to $11,000

marcelluswa folds

doudou972 folds

poloxon folds

NoWayKK folds

xxmarkyxx folds

ljfAces raises to $53,644 (all-in)

ForFoxSake calls $53,644

ljfAces shows [9c 8c]

ForFoxSake shows [As Ah]

Dealing Flop [Qc 4c 2c]

Dealing Turn [3h]

Dealing River [2h]

ljfAces has Flush, Queen high

ljfAces wins $112,888 with: Flush, Queen high

This beat puts me back in shove or fold mode but at least I still have a stack. 

Flipping

I manage to get some shoves through and keep my stack limping along until this hand on the final table bubble:

Blinds are now $5,000/$10,000

Seat 1: NoWayKK - $187,884

Seat 2: xxmarkyxx - $31,282

Seat 3: barx1210 - $226,303

Seat 4: BigbackMatty - $313,096

Seat 7: ForFoxSake - $80,992

Seat 9: tsuga - $201,804

Moving Button to seat 9

6x ante of $1,000

NoWayKK posts small blind ($5,000)

xxmarkyxx posts big blind ($10,000)

Dealing [Ks Ad] to ForFoxSake

barx1210 folds

BigbackMatty folds

ForFoxSake raises to $79,992 (all-in)

tsuga folds

NoWayKK folds

xxmarkyxx calls $30,282 (all-in)

xxmarkyxx shows [3c 3d]

ForFoxSake shows [Ks Ad]

Dealing Flop [3s 5c 9c]

Dealing Turn [6c]

Dealing River [8d]

ForFoxSake has High Card: Ace

xxmarkyxx has Three of a Kind: 3s

xxmarkyxx wins $71,564 with: Three of a Kind: 3s

This was the first flip I got involved in during this tournament (I class a flip as anything that is 60-40 to 40-60) unfortunately I lose it. It is important to try and avoid flips wherever possible in MTTs and I have gone several hours before getting into my first one, this is partly due to me picking my spots well and open shoving rather than standard raising (shoving 15bb often helps avoid flips as players are more likely to fold a hand such as 44 for example, whereas if you open to 2.5x they may shove 44 as they think that they have fold equity). Avoiding flips has also been luck of course, the times I have 3 bet shoved I have had my opponents dominated, but when I shoved QQ for example I could have been up v AK, regardless of this my route to the final table was lower on variance due to this. 

Triple Up with AA

3 hands later I pick up AA:

Blinds are now $5,000/$10,000

Button is at seat 2

Seat 1: NoWayKK - $179,884

Seat 2: xxmarkyxx - $19,564

Seat 3: barx1210 - $229,303

Seat 4: BigbackMatty - $366,096

Seat 7: ForFoxSake - $47,710

Seat 9: tsuga - $198,804

Moving Button to seat 3

6x ante of $1,000

BigbackMatty posts small blind ($5,000)

ForFoxSake posts big blind ($10,000)

Dealing [Ad Ac] to ForFoxSake

tsuga raises to $20,000

NoWayKK folds

xxmarkyxx folds

barx1210 folds

BigbackMatty calls $20,000

ForFoxSake raises to $46,710 (all-in)

tsuga calls $46,710

BigbackMatty calls $46,710

Dealing Flop [4c 5c 5d]

BigbackMatty checks

tsuga checks

Dealing Turn [6h]

BigbackMatty checks

tsuga checks

Dealing River [3c]

BigbackMatty checks

tsuga checks

ForFoxSake shows [Ad Ac]

ForFoxSake has Two Pairs: Aces, 5s

tsuga mucks

BigbackMatty mucks

ForFoxSake wins $146,130 with: Two Pairs: Aces, 5s

I was short so the 2 callers could have a wide range and the board is not great but I managed to get a triple up and I make the FT with a short stack and this is where part 2 will pick up the action.

April Review

March had proved to be a successful month for me, turning around some bad fortune in previous months. April 1^st was a Sunday and I registered for the Sunday High Roller on PKR, this attracted 144 runners and had over $5k for 1^st place. Things started off reasonably well with me winning small pots and after about 3 hours I won a flip with AK v 99 to double up and this allowed me some room to play, I was sat with Beyne and Jake Cody at different points during the game but didn’t get involved in any big pots with either. I won some medium pots to keep my stack increasing at a good rate and we made the money and soon after we were down to 12 runners, this moved me to a new table where I had Destacker on my direct left and Jake to his direct left, I had 25bb at this point and they had around 35bb so it was going to be difficult for me but I was playing for the victory and so was determined not to get run over by these MTT machines. A few hands into this table the following hand develops:

Blinds are now 2,000 / 4,000

Seat 1: Destacker - 143,003

Seat 2: JakeCody - 137,684

Seat 3: pinkywinky77 - 61,656

Seat 4: kian6 - 177,265

Seat 5: zacs100 - 132,627

Seat 6: ForFoxSake - 94,980

Moving Button to seat 5

6 x antes of 400

Pot sizes: 2,400

ForFoxSake posts small blind (2,000)

Destacker posts big blind (4,000)

Dealing [9 h][K h] to ForFoxSake

JakeCody raises to 8,157

pinkywinky77 folds

kian6 calls 8,157

zacs100 calls 8,157

ForFoxSake calls 8,157

I decide to call here as my hand is reasonable even though I am out of position I feel I can call with the value I am getting:

Destacker calls 8,157

Dealing Flop [8 c][A c][3 s]

Everyone checks

Dealing Turn [8 d]

ForFoxSake checks

Destacker bets 16,889

JakeCody folds

kian6 folds

zacs100 folds

ForFoxSake calls 16,889

Everyone checked the flop and Destacker bets out on the turn and everyone else folds, I only have K high but we have a lot of history together and I feel there is a good chance I am ahead so decide to call:

Dealing River [J s]

ForFoxSake checks

Destacker bets 38,995

ForFoxSake has requested more time

ForFoxSake calls 38,995

I was planning to call any safe looking river card (otherwise I wouldn’t call the turn) however Destacker bets more than I was anticipating, I use my timebank  as I am getting 3 to 1 on the call, he only needs to be bluffing 25% of the time for it to be a profitable call in terms of chips but if I call and lose I am left with a short stack, however as he is on my left he can do me a lot of damage later on so I need to try and get the advantage over him. In the end I weigh all the factors up and decide it’s a profitable call in terms of $ as well as chips:

Destacker shows [7 d][5 h]

ForFoxSake shows [9 h][K h]

ForFoxSake wins 154,953 with: One Pair: 8s

He shows 75o and my K high wins a nice pot.

A few hands later I get AJ and race Destacker’s 99 for his 14bb, I catch a straight on the river to bust him and I propel to a 50bb stack and a good lead over the table. A few hands after this Jake opens utg for just above a min raise, I am in the BB and put him in with AJ (he had about 20bb at this point) he called with KQd but the board bricked and I eliminated another dangerous opponent and I get a nice chiplead with 10 players left and my eyes are firmly on victory. A short while later the following hand develops:

Blinds are now 2,500 / 5,000

Seat 3: pinkywinky77 - 126,212

Seat 4: kian6 - 178,409

Seat 5: zacs100 - 82,170

Seat 6: ForFoxSake - 360,424

Moving Button to seat 3

4x posts ante of 500

kian6 posts small blind (2,500)

zacs100 posts big blind (5,000)

Dealing [J c][K c] to ForFoxSake

ForFoxSake raises to 10,000

KJc is a worth a raise 4 hand and both blinds call:

pinkywinky77 folds

kian6 calls 10,000

zacs100 calls 10,000

Dealing Flop [Q h][T c][K d]

kian6 checks

zacs100 bets 71,670 (all-in)

ForFoxSake calls 71,670

The donk shove surprised me somewhat and I called fairly quickly with my top pair and open ended straight draw:

kian6 raises to 167,909 (all-in)

ForFoxSake calls 167,909

This was a surprise but I was committed by now so called:

kian6 shows [A c][J d]

zacs100 shows [K h][A s]

ForFoxSake shows [J c][K c]

Dealing Turn [K s]

Dealing River [9 d]

kian6 has Straight, Ace high

kian6 wins 192,478 from side pot #1 with: Straight, Ace high

kian6 wins 247,010 with: Straight, Ace high

This hand annoyed me, neither blind 3 bet with their AJ or AK, considering we are 4 handed I would have expected one of them to 3 bet which would have saved me half of my stack. However on the flop I maybe could have folded and not taken the chance as the BB could have had KT or QT, however I still had 36bb so all was not lost.

I gain a few chips back before we reach the FT where I enter 3^rd in chips with 35bb. The first few hands are cagey but I manage to pick up a decent sized pot with a check raise. Soon after I eliminated WongaMan when he flopped top pair against my nut flush draw with one over, I spike my ace on the river to give me a slight chiplead with 5 left. The final table was long and I lost a few hands where I got it in in good shape or flipping, but eventually I managed to get HU with Jaymz84, I continually put pressure on and was winning a lot of uncontested pots but everytime we were both all-in he would win the hand so I couldn’t deliver the killer blow. Then the following hand developed:

Blinds are now 20,000 / 40,000

Seat 2: Jaymz84 - 752,726

Seat 6: ForFoxSake - 687,274

Moving Button to seat 6

2x ante of 4,000

ForFoxSake posts small blind (20,000)

Jaymz84 posts big blind (40,000)

Dealing Cards

Dealing [4 h][K h] to ForFoxSake

ForFoxSake raises to 80,000

Jaymz84 calls 80,000

I make a standard raise with my suited King, he continues to play passive and just calls:

Dealing Flop [7 s][7 h][5 c]

Jaymz84 checks

ForFoxSake bets 60,000

Jaymz84 calls 60,000

He check calls:

Dealing Turn [T s]

Jaymz84 checks

ForFoxSake bets 80,000

Jaymz84 calls 80,000

I decide to double barrel but he calls again:

Dealing River [J h]

Jaymz84 checks

ForFoxSake checks

ForFoxSake shows [4 h][K h]

ForFoxSake has One Pair: 7s

Jaymz84 shows [9 s][8 d]

Jaymz84 has Straight, Jack high

Jaymz84 wins 448,000 with: Straight, Jack high

I was ahead all the way until the river, there is no point in me leading the river, he isn’t calling with worse than K high and he is unlikely to fold anything better, unfortunately for me he hit one of his outs and I lose a big pot again, if he misses the river I have the 2-1 lead instead of him, his passive play is working as he is getting the run of the cards, but I still believe I can over run him if he doesn’t continue to hit the cards well. This gave him the lead and although I battled back somewhat, this was the final hand:

Blinds are now 20,000 / 40,000

Seat 2: Jaymz84 - 800,726

Seat 6: ForFoxSake - 639,274

Moving Button to seat 2

2x ante of 4,000

Jaymz84 posts small blind (20,000)

ForFoxSake posts big blind (40,000)

Dealing [Q h][A s] to ForFoxSake

Jaymz84 calls 40,000

ForFoxSake raises to 120,000

Jaymz84 raises to 796,726 (all-in)

ForFoxSake calls 635,274 (all-in)

Returning 161,452 to Jaymz84 uncalled

Jaymz84 shows [A h][3 c]

ForFoxSake shows [Q h][A s]

Dealing Flop [2 s][8 d][A c]

Dealing Turn [3 s]

Dealing River [A d]

Jaymz84 has Full House, Aces over 3s

Jaymz84 wins 1,278,548 with: Full House, Aces over 3s

He limps the SB again, I have a hand and raise as I have been doing most the time he limps, he shoves and I snap call and have him totally crushed, if I dodge the 3 outer I have him down to 4bb and am virtually guaranteed to win the $5.6k first prize, but luck is on his side once again and he hits the 3 to win and leave me with $3.3k for 2^nd place. Overall I played well despite not winning a showdown for a long period I kept competitive, but I couldn’t win a single all in v Jaymz and that’s how MTTs go sometimes. I was pleased with my play and there was nothing else I could do.

I played the London Calling Main Event at the Fox club but ran really dry, getting very few playable hands, I managed to chip up to around 35k from 22.5k starting stack but ended up 5 bet shoving AK into a good loose opponent who had KK and I didn’t improve and busted midway through day 1.

Online, aside from the HR 2^nd I was struggling for any notable results, I was playing the WSOP Vegas Nights MTTs on PKR, which allow entry into a ‘freeroll’ for a $4.5k package to play in a WSOP Side Event. I played 35 of these in total for a total outlay of $770, I managed to win a couple of these along with a few other cashes for a total of $126, which gave me a profit of $476 and more importantly a good starting stack in the ‘freeroll’. There was a total of 3 packages up for grabs but hundreds of runners, although most had below 1,000 chips to my 11.5k starting stack. I chipped up slowly to 15k and remained around that level for a while as the players dropped like flies, I got TT cracked by 34 when the SB open shoved and hit but I managed to get my chips back not long after with AQ v QJ. This was the final hand and is a good example of good satellite play:

Blinds are now 2,500 / 5,000

Seat 3: MrMetzger - 8,828

Seat 5: ForFoxSake - 62,938

Seat 6: Weazel666 - 149,964

Seat 8: DaveCoffee3 - 111,170

Moving Button to seat 6

MrMetzger posts ante of 500

ForFoxSake posts ante of 500

Weazel666 posts ante of 500

DaveCoffee3 posts ante of 500

DaveCoffee3 posts small blind (2,500)

MrMetzger posts big blind (5,000)

Dealing [A s][9 h] to ForFoxSake

ForFoxSake calls 5,000

Weazel666 calls 5,000

DaveCoffee3 calls 5,000

MrMetzger checks

Pot sizes: 22,000

Dealing Flop [A d][6 s][8 s]

DaveCoffee3 checks

MrMetzger bets 3,328 (all-in)

ForFoxSake calls 3,328

Weazel666 calls 3,328

DaveCoffee3 folds

Pot sizes: 31,984

Dealing Turn [9 s]

ForFoxSake checks

Weazel666 checks

Dealing River [6 c]

ForFoxSake checks

Weazel666 checks

Pot sizes: 31,984

MrMetzger shows [5 h][7 c]

MrMetzger has Straight, 9 high

ForFoxSake mucks

Weazel666 shows [6 h][8 h]

Weazel666 has Full House, 6s over 8s

If I had raised the A9o preflop chances are Weazel folds and the BB would have won the hand and who knows what would have happened there, satellites are all about securing the ticket and not going for the win. Needless to say I was absolutely delighted to win a package and I am now eagerly looking forward to travelling to Vegas. We will be staying in a Bella Suite in the Palazzo hotel and I will be playing Event 59 of the WSOP, I will probably play some others while out there but have yet to analyse the schedule and make up my mind, at the very least I will play some other tournaments that the other hotels are hosting around the WSOP.

I ended April with a PKR Open win, the final table was very passive allowing me to win lots of uncontested pots, this is my kind of dream final table, one where everyone else is playing tight looking to ladder, but I continually lost a lot of all in races and at one point was down to 22k with the bb at 16k, but I got my turn of luck and won a couple of hands and resumed pushing my opponents around and ended up claiming my first weekday open victory.

Despite running fairly mediocre during April I managed to record a profit and win a WSOP package, so the month definitely goes down as a good one, my short term goal now is to continue getting results and play more live tournaments in the run up to Vegas, where hopefully I can go deep in some events!

MTT Luck Part 3

My previous two blog entries have shown that there is often a very fine line between skill and luck, the two entities cannot always be clearly separated, even though it is obvious that skilful players win in the long run over weaker opponents, luck has a powerful influence over a longer period than most people appreciate.  Even seemingly straight forward actions have hidden elements of luck behind them and I will briefly discuss a couple of classic scenarios here.

Say you are dealt AK and raise get one call from the blinds; you are both fairly deep stacked, say 60bb or so. The flop comes down 29J rainbow. The villain checks so you decide to c-bet, he calls and the turn card is an 8. Now what do you do? Let us suppose you have history with this villain that they often call the flop bet to combat c-bets but fold turn with a big part of their range, betting the turn here is a big element of skill, now if the villain is unknown to you, either because you have never played them before or you have not made any notes or paid attention to their play then betting the turn has a huge slice of luck whether he calls or folds, this doesn’t mean that there is no skill involved or that betting the turn is wrong, but whether the villain calls or folds is out of your hands once you bet, you can control the bet size etc to help turn luck in your favour but that’s it. This example clearly demonstrates that the more information you obtain on your opponent’s patterns the more you can increase the skill factor in your play and in turn reduce the luck element.

Now let us suppose we are playing in a MTT full of competent and observant players and have been at the same table for an hour and have been totally card dead and played no hands as a result. All of a sudden you get AA in early position and raise and the whole table snap folds. You of course curse your bad luck that no one else had a hand, or if we had had a few hands in the last hour or so someone else may have been tempted to play a marginal hand against us because we don’t have an uber-tight image caused by not playing a hand for over an hour. It is true that if you had had a few playable hands in recent orbits your image wouldn’t be as tight as it is, but we cannot control the hands we get dealt. This is an element of luck that is out of our hands, or is it? If you are finding yourself card dead at a competent table then you should be able to open some pots with weak holdings which does two things; firstly it gives your image a boost, you no longer look like a complete nit so when you do get a monster hand you are more likely to get some action, secondly it also helps you to pick up a few smaller pots (providing you are choosing rights spots and telling a good story with your actions) and this will help you avoid some orthodox hands as described in MTT Luck Part 1 of this blog. Being a bit looser in the right conditions has a double effect at reducing the luck element in your game. Although being loose and playing more hands you run the risk of running into bigger hands and this has its own element of luck, providing you pick your spots well and do not go over aggressive you will be using your skill to gain a small edge which can only be a good thing.

When people talk about variance, or bad beats or luck of any kind they often will refer to the long term. Indeed I have mentioned it in my blog a few times. How often do you get a beat and tell a friend only for them to tell you that you want the call in the long term? What exactly is long term? Long term is a concept whereby if we play enough hands then the effect of luck will cancel itself out and we would run exactly at EV. The truth is that for MTTs at least, the long term does not exist. It is not a tangible entity; you cannot say that 10,000 MTTs or even a million MTTs is the long term. There are simply so many variables in MTTs that it is impossible to get close to the long term. By variables I mean such factors as buyin, number of runners, what stage of the MTT you are at, the dynamics etc. For example you might win one flip in a $5 MTT with 100 runners, but this is not cancelled out by losing a flip in the WSOP Main Event, although in terms of luck it is the same, clearly the weighting of luck is balanced towards the Main Event. It is physically impossible for anyone to play more than 100 Main Events in their lifetime so any luck encountered in the Main Event is short term, and the variance in it as such is off the scale. If I was to tell you that you were playing the main event and were going to bust out losing a flip would you rather it was a) Towards the end of the first day a long way from the money, b) Lose once inside the money but having only doubled your buyin or c) Bust early on the final table having already secured $1,000,000? Clearly you would choose c) as it means you have secured a tidy sum, but the variance in losing flip c) is far greater than losing a) or b) since there is more at stake on the FT. As such the stage in which we encounter luck also has an influence on our variance which makes the long term even further away.

It is true that the more MTTs you play the closer to EV you should be, but this does not mean that because you have run below EV for the past 1,000 MTTs that the next MTT you play you will run above EV. Luck does not remember the past; it has no concept of time at all and I believe it is entirely possible that some people are luckier than others, even over vast amounts of MTTs. There are so many variables at work that it is a mathematical certainty that even if two people played 1 million MTTs each that one of them would be luckier than the other, they could play another million MTTs and the gap could become even wider, there is no reason that it should get closer together just because they are getting closer to the long term. This is because they are in fact NOT getting closer to the long term. Just like when you try to count to infinity, even if you count to 1 billion you are still not closer to reaching it since it is not a tangible entity. In reality this means you could play as many MTTs as physically possible and run below EV over that sample but still run below EV in the next 1,000 you play.

Does this mean that long term is a myth, is it a lie spread to cover the fact that poker is rigged or that some players are luckier than others? No, the long term is valid as principle even though it is not tangible or achievable. What it actually refers to is that over time each MTT you play has a smaller influence over your sample size. Let us suppose we have flipped a fair coin 100 times and it has come up heads 90 times and tails 10 times. If we say we win when the coin lands tails then we are running 40% below EV, we are only winning 10% when we should be winning 50% in the long term, how very unlucky. What is the chance it comes up tails next? It is still 50/50, now let us suppose we flip the same coin another 100 times, this time it lands heads 70 times and tails 30, now we are running 20% below EV, so we are still running under EV. If we add the two samples together we have 160 heads and 40 tails, which means overall we are 30% below EV, which is closer to neutral than our original sample even though we continued to run under EV during the 2^nd sample. Now let’s suppose we flip the coin another 9,800 times and it lands heads 5,000 times and tails 4,800, we are still running below EV but combing it with our 200 flip sample we have a total of 5,160 heads and 4,840 tails which means we are running about 3% below EV. The reason for this is that each toss of the coin has less of an influence in the overall scheme of how close to EV you are. Taking the example of flipping the coin only once, you can only ever be 50% above EV or 50% below it. As such the long term is merely a principle of saying that the luck factor will tend towards the expected values the more you play, but you can never play enough to guarantee that you will be anywhere close to your EV.

A common mistake among MTT players (even seasoned pros) is failing to appreciate good luck when they get it. Poker seems very easy when you get dealt hands frequently and sit on the right side of coolers and hit all your draws, win the big flips etc. Even an average or weak player can win an MTT if they get enough of this run good and when this happens to a player early in their playing days they may get delusions of grandeur about their game, this is often followed by tilt rants when they don’t run as good as that all the time. Average players can go on heaters and can win numerous tournaments in a short span and it can seem like they are a world champion. Meanwhile their peers may look on with envy, hoping it will be their turn soon. This is a wasted emotion, but we are human and can’t always control our emotions as well as we would like.

Another factor that people often overlook in MTTs is that there can only ever be one winner, that combined with all the elements of luck that are involved in MTTs mean it is incredibly hard to win any individual MTT. So with so much luck is there any edge in MTTs? Yes of course there is, since there is obviously skill involved in a lot of hands, players who work hard and have an edge over others will be making good decisions more often than others and these players are more likely to have good results than those making bad ones. The more of an edge you have the less variance will affect you, but even the most skilful player is at the knees of variance. The two biggest weapons against variance are decision making and volume; make enough good decisions in enough MTTs, you will get deep enough often enough and you should come out a winner at some point, although I can't tell you when that point will be as that is in the hands of luck. Don’t let downswings affect your decision making as hard as it may be. Remember, all we can do is minimise the effect of luck where we can, do not worry about what is outside of your control as this can have no positive effects. Simply worry about what is under your control,  focus on your own decision making and look to continually improve your game and let variance and luck do as it pleases for we are a slave to it and not it’s master.

Thanks for reading, hope you have enjoyed this 3 part series, I won’t wish you good luck since that would be ironic, but I wish you good decision making!

MTT Luck Part 2 - Positive Hands

In Part 1 I described what an Orthodox hand was and how these were essentially flips regardless of the actual cards dealt, if you can get around to this way of thinking for Orthodox hands it may well help you deal with tilt issues when you get that set of 6s cracked by AA as in my previous example. It also highlights how in MTT endgames nearly every hand can become a flip as the play becomes standardised due to shallow stack sizes. So what about hands that we wouldn't play the same as our opponents?

Let us consider another simple hand, it is folded around to Player A, who is in the SB with 10bb, player B in the BB also has 10bb. Player A looks down to see QJs and decides to shove, player B looks at their cards and sees pocket Aces so snap calls the shove, the board runs out A27 T K giving player A the pot with a runner-runner gutshot, how sick was that hand? Note that player B would not have shoved the QJs if they had been in the SB, so this is not an Orthodox hand as discussed previously so we can not consider it a 'flip'. As such, on the face of it, it looks like player A got terribly lucky and player B terribly unlucky but luck in this hand is not a zero sum equation; that is that Player A is not as lucky as player B is unlucky. Why is this the case? Well let us analyse the hand again but this time we will do some basic calculations of the expected value of each players move. If you don’t want to get bogged down with the maths, skip this bit and go to the final figures I give in the table.

For simplicity let us assume at the start of the hand each player has exactly 10,000 chips, the SB is 500, the BB is 1,000 and there are 10 antes of 100 each in the pot, so the pot before any action is (100 x 10) + 500 + 1000 = 2,500 chips.

It is folded around to player A, who after posting the SB and ante has 9,400 chips left, they expect the BB to only call a shove with the top 20% of hands, so if player A shoves, player B folds 80% of the time. Of the 20% of the time player B calls, then player A has 44% equity against the top 20% of hands (check PokerStove to work this out if you wish).

We now have 3 possible outcomes: 

1.             80% of the time player A wins the pot of 2,500 chips so their stack becomes 9,400 + 2,500 = 11,900, the EV here is 0.8 x 11,900 = 9,520     
2.       When player A calls, player B still wins 44% of the time, this happens 44% x 20% = 8.8% of the time, the EV for player A here is 1,830. Calculated as 20,800 (the total size of the pot when both players call) x 0.088
3.       The rest of the time 11.2% player A loses and has zero stack

We now add these 3 figures together 9,520 + 1,830 + 0 = 11,350, this is the prior expected stack of player A after he shoves and this is a gain of 1,950, this is an increase of over 20%! (Prior Expected Stack is the stack that player A can expect to have on average when they shove prior to player B acting).

What happens to Player’s A’s expected stack size when B calls with AA, well AA v QJs is 80% v 20% so the posterior expected stack (This is the Expected stack of player A after B calls and shows AA) of A is 20,800 * 0.20 = 4,160. 

When player B sees AA, they don't really care what player A has, but let's assume that they expect play A to shove the top 50% of hands, player B has 85% equity against this range , we can calculate player B’s Prior Expected Stack (this is prior to Player A shoving  but given that Player B knows his own cards) and this is 14,540.

Similarly once player A shoves, we can work out that Player B’s Posterior Expected Stack is 16,640. I have summarised the scenarios and outcomes in the table below:

As we can see, both players have a positive expectation at the time they make their action (their Prior Expected Stacks are above their current stacks). I will label these types of hands as Positive Hands, in which both players make plays that have a positive expectation at the time given the info they have. Of course this is subjective depending on factors such as playing styles and there may be multiple streets of action some of which maybe slightly negative or have implied odds calculations etc but it highlights a good principal.

How can both players have positive expectations in the same hand? Well there are dead chips in the pot, but also player A makes a move against an unknown random hand, which means his shove is profitable long term. The fact here is that each player does not know his opponent’s hole cards so they both have different expectation levels to those that exist once the action plays out and the cards are shown. Note that the sum of the 2 Prior Expected Stacks do not equal the sum of the 2 stacks, but the sum of the Posterior Expected Stacks do, this is because the Prior stats take account of folding and ranges of random hands, the Posterior Stats have complete information. Once the hands are known one player can only gain at another’s expense as is seen in the table above.

So that’s a lot of number crunching, how does this fit in with luck in MTT’s?  Well we can see that when player A shoves he makes a good move that is profitable long term, but all of a sudden he expects to lose lost 7,190 (11,350 – 4,160) because player B has AA, this is out of A’s control so A can rightly say he has been very unlucky.

Also, Player B obviously makes a +EV move since he has the nuts at the time, but he has been lucky to get dealt AA at the start of the hand in a spot where player A can make a +EV move, he has a big +EV situation at the start of the hand but this increases further when player A shoves, even though A does not make a mistake by shoving. Since A has not made a mistake, we cannot state that he has been outplayed, as such player B is very lucky to have found himself on the right side of a positive hand. This is an often overlooked side of luck, it is very easy to get AA in the BB and the SB finds 84o and folds, the maths shows that AA wants the shove long term, but this is not under his control so he is lucky when he gets the shove.

Naturally when player B wins with the AA here he will want to congratulate himself on doubling up, but his double up is entirely down to luck, therefore when he loses with AA in this spot he should take it in good grace, this hand is in the hands of luck much like the orthodox hands but only these spots generally favour one player over the other since both players wouldn’t play it the same way. Player B is losing out in the long run when they have QJs in the SB but fold here, but this does not mean that they should begrudge player A winning occasionally when they shove QJs, remember QJs should beat AA about 20% of the time. In the long run here if Player A shoves QJs from the SB but Player B would fold, player A will crush player B assuming a random hand in the BB. Note this means there is a skill element in the prior element of the hand for Player A, but not for Player B, as such Player A has more right to be aggrieved at being unlucky that Player B, even though player B actually has the best hand when the stacks go in!

In summary, Positive Hands are hands where both players make a move that has a positive expectation prior to them knowing their opponent’s hole cards, however if the roles were reversed each player would act quite differently so these cannot be considered Orthodox hands, if both players were to act the same way then the Orthodox hand logic from part 1 should be applied. In Positive hand situations it is not necessarily the player with the best hand when the stacks go in who should feel the most upset when they lose the hand, but often it is the player who has the worst hand but runs into a better hand. They gain the most against a random hand but also lose the most when they are unlucky to run into the top range of hands. The player with the best hand also gains when the other player makes their own positive move which in itself is down to luck, so this player is lucky in two ways, firstly that they have such a good hand and secondly that their opponent has a hand good enough that they can make a positive move, therefore when you lose with the best hand in these spots you have already used some good luck up at the start of the hand. I have intentionally given an overly simplified example to illustrate my general point but there are lot of permutations and other factors involved of course. Try to bear this example in mind next time someone shoves a positive hand into your AA which gets cracked.