Wednesday, 4 April 2012

2012 First Quarter Review


January started with a trip to the Fox Club for their main event, having made day 2 and busting to a cooler a few places from the money in December I was hoping to do better this time around. There were 143 entries with 15 paid and a top prize of just over £13k. The first few levels were fairly standard and I was winning a lot of pots without showdowns by mixing up my play, I won a big pot when I opened with Aces over a limper who called, the flop came down 2cJc8s and I ended up getting it in v T9c, I had the guy covered and it was only about 50% of my stack but it was still a sweat, but the board bricked and I was amongst the chiplead after winning another decent pot turning the nut straight with KT, although I chopped with another player who had KT also, we got a 3rd player’s stack who had the small end of the straight. Soon after I got A8o on the button and opened to 1,400 from an 85k stack, the blinds are 300/600 and at this point I get distracted by the Fox Club blogger who wanted a chip count etc from me, meanwhile the BB shoved for 9k and slightly distracted I made a quick call, it felt like the guy was making a stand to the button open, I had been fairly aggressive and so I called and he flipped AQh and I lost the pot and kicked myself somewhat for making the call, however soon after the same player 3 bet shoved rags and busted which made me feel a little better since he was clearly capable of raising wide but I just happened to run into him having a hand. At the end of the first day I bagged 102k; with an average stack of 84k and 38 players left I was happy with my play and looking forward to day 2.

Soon into day 2 I get AA and raise over a limp and get called, the flop comes 884 and I c-bet and get called, I know the limper is loose and I have heard him say previously that 8 is his favourite number so I am very wary and check the brick turn, he fires on the brick river and I call and he shows 83o and I drop to 75k ish. After this I struggle for momentum for a while before doubling with JJ v Ace rag and we go down to 2 tables, with 15 being paid I try to pick up the aggression and win a few small pots but by the time the bubble burst I am just below the average stack, soon after a strange player shoved 5bb or so from EP it folded to me in the BB and I had JQo, this guy had previously shoved hands like 92o while folding Ax hands, I decided I was in good shape against him and called, he flipped 84 but he made a full house and that left me short, soon after I open shoved J2h and ran into kings and busted in 15th, which while it was a cash was also a disappointment since I had had a good stack for most of the tournament.

The very next day I won Welllbet’s Home Game on PKR but despite this January was a miserable month a few minor cashes and winning Welllbet’s again at the end of the month didn’t stop me recording a loss for the month, I also played the £540 APT event at the Fox but didn’t really get anywhere in it and lost a flip with JJ to AK, all in all January was pretty bad and I had had higher hopes for February. 2 wins in a month without many other serious cashes is not enough for someone who plays lots of mid and high stake MTTs throughout the month.

February would prove even worse, a 2nd and 3rd in the Monte Carlo were my only notable results and my bankroll was taking a severe hit. I was feeling really low  about my game and was seriously considering taking a break, I decided to give it another week or two and I managed to win the Monte Carlo, this helped me to regain some of my confidence and a few days later I won a Primetime and the day after that the Dirty Dozen, these 3 wins combined were worth nearly $5k and suddenly things were looking up again, a more steady stream of minor cashes also helped maintain my bankroll and I won the Dirty Dozen again towards the end of the month. March had proven to be a really good for me and had more than made up for my losses in the previous two months.

It just shows how quickly things can change in MTTs, I was down and out a few weeks ago but suddenly my confidence was back. I am a firm believer that confidence is a huge factor in MTTs, when I am feeling confident my instincts are generally better and I make better decisions in marginal spots. Let’s take an example of where I have been card dead in an MTT for a while and I get dealt QQ, UTG raises and I 3 bet from UTG+1 and all of a sudden a mid position player cold 4 bet shoves, instinct tells me they have AA or KK most of the time but if I am feeling low on confidence then I am more likely to call because I have no belief that I can get chips elsewhere, either because I am not playing my A game or the cards are not going my way or a combination of both, whereas when I am confident I can hit the fold button easier trusting my abilities (and also variance) will allow me to regain chips in a better spot. Confidence also naturally means I play more aggressive and providing this doesn’t lead to over-confidence and over-aggression this can only be a good thing as controlled aggression will win more chips without showdowns than a tight game will, this in turn usually leads to better results since less showdowns means less luck is involved and this generates a confidence cycle. As I type this I am feeling confident about my game and have had a few decent results recently, which have been a combination of me playing my best game and also getting a good run of cards (I don’t think I have been in god mode in terms of variance but I have been running above EV which is always a welcome change).

April has so far continued as March left off and I am going to play the London Calling Main Event at the Fox club over the Easter weekend so I am hoping I can transfer my online results into a deep live finish, hopefully my next blog will be about me winning my first live MTT J

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